Texas GOP Senate Primary Heads to Runoff: John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton Set for May 26 Showdown

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The competitive Texas Republican Senate primary is officially heading to a runoff, according to a projection from Decision Desk HQ.

Incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn will face Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a high-stakes May 26 runoff after neither candidate secured the required 50 percent-plus-one majority in Tuesday’s primary election.

Why the Texas GOP Primary Is Heading to a Runoff

Under Texas election law, candidates must receive more than 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. With both Cornyn and Paxton falling short of that threshold, voters will decide the Republican nominee in a second round.

Rep. Wesley Hunt, who had been polling in the double digits prior to Election Day, failed to advance but played a key role in splitting the vote. Pre-election polls showed Paxton holding a slight lead over Cornyn.

High Stakes for Texas Republicans

The runoff sets up a dramatic battle between:

• John Cornyn – A four-term incumbent senator with strong ties to national Republican leadership.
• Ken Paxton – A controversial but popular figure among the conservative base.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) previously released internal polling arguing that Cornyn is “the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup.” In a February memo, the NRSC warned that Texas “cannot afford to be a gamble” in the high-stakes midterm elections.

Cornyn has cautioned that a Paxton nomination could result in a “massacre” for Texas Republicans in November, pointing to the legal and political controversies surrounding the state attorney general.

Trump’s Role in the Texas Senate Race

Both leading candidates have emphasized their alignment with former President Donald Trump. However, Trump declined to endorse any candidate before the primary, stating that he likes “all three” Republican contenders.

His neutrality adds another layer of uncertainty to the runoff, as his endorsement could significantly influence conservative voters.

Democrats See Opportunity in Texas

On the Democratic side, optimism is rising. Party leaders are drawing comparisons to the 2018 Senate race, when Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost to Sen. Ted Cruz by just a few percentage points.

Meanwhile, two prominent Democrats — state Rep. James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett — are competing in their party’s primary contest.

Although Republicans have historically dominated statewide elections in Texas, some strategists worry that internal divisions could force the GOP to invest heavily in defending what has long been considered a safe seat.

Record Spending and Midterm Implications

The Texas Senate race, widely viewed as the kickoff to this year’s midterm cycle, has already shattered spending records. While Republicans remain favored to retain the seat, Democratic momentum could make the November general election more competitive than expected.

The May 26 runoff between Cornyn and Paxton will likely determine not just the GOP nominee, but also shape the national Senate battlefield in 2026.

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